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Time series imputation model based on long-short term memory network with residual connection
QIAN Bin, ZHENG Kaihong, CHEN Zipeng, XIAO Yong, LI Sen, YE Chunzhuang, MA Qianli
Journal of Computer Applications    2021, 41 (1): 243-248.   DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2020060928
Abstract654)      PDF (942KB)(547)       Save
Traditional time series imputation methods typically assume that time series data is derived from a linear dynamic system. However, the real-world time series show more non-linear characteristics. Therefore, a time series imputation model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with residual connection, called RSI-LSTM (ReSidual Imputation Long-Short Term Memory), was proposed to capture the non-linear dynamic characteristics of time series effectively and mine the potential relation between missing data and recent non-missing data. Specifically, the LSTM network was used to model the underlying non-linear dynamic characteristics of time series, meanwhile, the residual connection was introduced to mine the connection between the historical values and the missing value to improve the imputation capability of the model. Firstly, RSI-LSTM was applied to impute the missing data of the univariate daily power supply dataset, and then on the power load dataset of the 9th Electrical Engineering Mathematical Modeling Competition problem A, the meteorological factors were introduced as the multivariate input of RSI-LSTM to improve the imputation performance of the model on missing value in the time series. Furthermore, two general multivariate time series datasets were used to verify the missing value imputation ability of the model. Experimental results show that compared with LSTM, RSI-LSTM can obtain better imputation performance, and has the Mean Square Error (MSE) 10% lower than LSTM generally on both univariate and multivariate datasets.
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Multi-scale skip deep long short-term memory network for short-term multivariate load forecasting
XIAO Yong, ZHENG Kaihong, ZHENG Zhenjing, QIAN Bin, LI Sen, MA Qianli
Journal of Computer Applications    2021, 41 (1): 231-236.   DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2020060929
Abstract348)      PDF (862KB)(505)       Save
In recent years, the short-term power load prediction model built with Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) as main part has achieved excellent performance in short-term power load forecasting. However, RNN cannot effectively capture the multi-scale temporal features in short-term power load data, making it difficult to further improve the load forecasting accuracy. To capture the multi-scale temporal features in short-term power load data, a short-term power load prediction model based on Multi-scale Skip Deep Long Short-Term Memory (MSD-LSTM) was proposed. Specifically, a forecasting model was built with LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) as main part, which was able to better capture long short-term temporal dependencies, thereby alleviating the problem that important information is easily lost when encountering the long time series. Furthermore, a multi-layer LSTM architecture was adopted and different skip connection numbers were set for the layers, enabling different layers of MSD-LSTM can capture the features with different time scales. Finally, a fully connected layer was introduced to fuse the multi-scale temporal features extracted by different layers, and the obtained fusion feature was used to perform the short-term power load prediction. Experimental results show that compared with LSTM, MSD-LSTM achieves lower Mean Square Error (MSE) with the reduction of 10% in general. It can be seen that MSD-LSTM can better capture multi-scale temporal features in short-term power load data, thereby improving the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting.
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